The Wuhan Corona virus has a well-known growth progression reported by the World Health Organization (www.who.int) with official reports published almost daily.
Here is the link to the reports on the real spread of the disease as officially announced by the WHO
I asked my students to create a small program with a data structure (one-dimensional array) to contain the number of infected people if the infection rate is 2.5% every day, as reported in the following graph:
Looking at the next report, I insert the official data into the Java code produced: on January 30, the number of infected people is 7818
I start by introducing this data into the element 0 of the array and try to calculate the subsequent elements, trying to predict how many sick people we will have exactly on February 29, 2020, if there are no elements that intervene in the spread of the disease (pandemic). I will try to check the prediction, hoping to be wrong, of course.
The number of sick people doubles every 7 days, the number of possible infected people doubles every day, and the number of deaths is 3.10% of the sick people.
The infection spreads without human intervention, so we simulate and calculate the geometric progression of the disease.
Here is the code and the video of its development:
package coronavirus; public class CoronaVIRUS { public static void main(String[] args) { //we define 3 arrays int days=100; double infected[]= new double[days]; double illnes[]= new double[days]; double death[]= new double[days]; infected[0]=7818; for( int i=1;i<infected.length;i++) { infected[i]=Math.round(infected[i-1]+infected[i-1]*0.21) ; } PrintArray(infected, "infected"); illnes[0]=7818; for( int i=1;i<illnes.length;i++) { illnes[i]=Math.round(illnes[i-1]+illnes[i-1]*0.10) ; } System.out.println("----------------------"); PrintArray(illnes, "ill"); for( int i=0;i<death.length;i++) { death[i]=Math.round(illnes[i]*0.031) ; } System.out.println("----------------------"); PrintArray(death, "death"); } public static void PrintArray(double v[], String comment) { for( int i=0;i<v.length;i++) {System.out.println(v[i]+" "+ comment+" day: "+i ); } } } In the comments, indicate your calculated prediction exactly on the day 29/2/2020 from the date of insertion of the comment.
Here is the code that calculates some mathematical predictions without considering any human intervention in the spread of the disease. The data is absolutely not a prediction, but the result of a mathematical exercise that can indicate the trend of the geometric progression. 7818.0 infected day: 0 30/01/2020 9460.0 infected day: 1 31/01 11447.0 infected day: 2 1/2 13851.0 infected day: 3 2/2 16760.0 infected day: 4 3/2 20280.0 infected day: 5 4/2 24539.0 infected day: 6 5/2 29692.0 infected day: 7 6/2 35927.0 infected day: 8 7/2 43472.0 infected day: 9 52601.0 infected day: 10 63647.0 infected day: 11 77013.0 infected day: 12 93186.0 infected day: 13 112755.0 infected day: 14 136434.0 infected day: 15 165085.0 infected day: 16 199753.0 infected day: 17 241701.0 infected day: 18 292458.0 infected day: 19 353874.0 infected day: 20 428188.0 infected day: 21 518107.0 infected day: 22 626909.0 infected day: 23 758560.0 infected day: 24 917858.0 infected day: 25 1110608.0 infected day: 26 1343836.0 infected day: 27 1626042.0 infected day: 28 1967511.0 infected day: 29 2380688.0 infected day: 30 29/02/2020 *********************************** 2880632.0 infected day: 31 3485565.0 infected day: 32 4217534.0 infected day: 33 5103216.0 infected day: 34 6174891.0 infected day: 35 7471618.0 infected day: 36 9040658.0 infected day: 37 1.0939196E7 infected day: 38 1.3236427E7 infected day: 39 1.6016077E7 infected day: 40 1.9379453E7 infected day: 41 2.3449138E7 infected day: 42 2.8373457E7 infected day: 43 3.4331883E7 infected day: 44 4.1541578E7 infected day: 45 5.0265309E7 infected day: 46 6.0821024E7 infected day: 47 7.3593439E7 infected day: 48 8.9048061E7 infected day: 49 1.07748154E8 infected day: 50 1.30375266E8 infected day: 51 1.57754072E8 infected day: 52 1.90882427E8 infected day: 53 2.30967737E8 infected day: 54 2.79470962E8 infected day: 55 3.38159864E8 infected day: 56 4.09173435E8 infected day: 57 4.95099856E8 infected day: 58 5.99070826E8 infected day: 59 7.24875699E8 infected day: 60 8.77099596E8 infected day: 61 1.061290511E9 infected day: 62 1.284161518E9 infected day: 63 1.553835437E9 infected day: 64 1.880140879E9 infected day: 65 2.274970464E9 infected day: 66 2.752714261E9 infected day: 67 3.330784256E9 infected day: 68 4.03024895E9 infected day: 69 4.87660123E9 infected day: 70 5.900687488E9 infected day: 71 7.13983186E9 infected day: 72 8.639196551E9 infected day: 73 1.0453427827E10 infected day: 74 1.2648647671E10 infected day: 75 1.5304863682E10 infected day: 76 1.8518885055E10 infected day: 77 2.2407850917E10 infected day: 78 2.711349961E10 infected day: 79 3.2807334528E10 infected day: 80 3.9696874779E10 infected day: 81 4.8033218483E10 infected day: 82 5.8120194364E10 infected day: 83 7.032543518E10 infected day: 84 8.5093776568E10 infected day: 85 1.02963469647E11 infected day: 86 1.24585798273E11 infected day: 87 1.5074881591E11 infected day: 88 1.82406067251E11 infected day: 89 2.20711341374E11 infected day: 90 2.67060723063E11 infected day: 91 3.23143474906E11 infected day: 92 3.91003604636E11 infected day: 93 4.7311436161E11 infected day: 94 5.72468377548E11 infected day: 95 6.92686736833E11 infected day: 9